IMF RCDC 2025 Summit:

The New Arc of Global Transformation - AI, Autonomy & the Emerging Geo-economic Order

IMF RCDC 2025 Summit Speakers

Last week, Minerva had the honor of contributing to the International Monetary Fund’s Regional Capacity Development Center (RCDC) Summit, where our Executive Director, Ernest Wohnig, delivered an address on the accelerating intersection of artificial intelligence, autonomy, and global economic transformation.

His presentation, “AI, Autonomy & the Emerging Geoeconomic Order,” examined how the industrialization of intelligence is reshaping institutions, competitiveness, and the global development landscape.

A New Infrastructure of Power

Ernest opened with a framing that captures the magnitude of the shift now underway:

“Artificial intelligence is no longer just a tool. It is becoming a new infrastructure of power—shaping economies, institutions, and societies alike. For the first time, we can program intelligence and agency at scale.”

This insight reflects a growing reality: AI is no longer a sector—it is a substrate, increasingly integrated into governance, national strategy, and the foundations of economic resilience.

Across 120–140 high-compute data centers worldwide, hyperscale investment is accelerating rapidly, with global AI infrastructure spending projected to exceed $1.25 trillion by 2030. This expansion is generating profound implications for energy systems, labor markets, industrial policy, and national competitiveness.

Two Diverging AI Constellations

The presentation outlined the emergence of two global AI development models:

1. High-Compute Frontier Systems

These systems rely on advanced semiconductors, dense energy chains, and mega-scale data aggregation. They are capital-intensive and highly capable—driving frontier innovation, large-scale automation, and breakthroughs in simulation, logistics, and scientific computation.

2. Distributed Open-Model Ecosystems

These lower-compute architectures offer broader accessibility and regional sovereignty. They enable rapid adoption but often at the cost of narrower capability and greater dependence on foreign compute infrastructure.

This divergence is not temporary; it marks a structural shift likely to define geopolitical and development dynamics for decades.

2028–2035: From Adjustment to Autonomy

Ernest highlighted two critical phases:

2028 — The Adjustment Era

Economies will navigate mismatched compute availability, governance gaps, talent shortages, and energy-compute friction. Middle-income countries will experiment with hybrid strategies, while developing nations face both leapfrog opportunities and the risk of deepening reliance on external AI infrastructure.

2035 — The Autonomy Phase

By the mid-2030s, autonomy becomes embedded across sectors:

• Factories and warehouses increasingly “go dark”

• Autonomous logistics and energy systems become standard

• AI-enabled public-sector units manage complexity at scale

• A new development divide emerges around intelligence capacity and compute sovereignty

This marks the full industrialization of intelligence.

Implications for Industry and Institutions

For the private sector, AI accelerates a redesign of workforce models, productivity cycles, and governance obligations. Future-leading firms are already building internal AI academies, restructuring workflows, and preparing for autonomous operations.

For the IMF and peer institutions, the transformation is equally profound:

• Macroeconomic surveillance becomes predictive and real-time

• Financial intelligence and AML capabilities become AI-driven

• Crisis-detection systems move beyond periodic analysis

• Advisory missions expand to include digital governance and AI capacity building

These shifts require new talent strategies, new governance models, and new institutional workflows.

RCDCs: Strategic Nodes in a Transforming System

Regional Capacity Development Centers (RCDCs) will play an increasingly pivotal role. They are uniquely positioned to:

• Build regional AI literacy and advisory capacity

• Engage member governments on fiscal tech, AML, and governance

• Support secure and distributed operational models

• Pilot regionally relevant AI tools in macro-forecasting, tax administration, and risk detection

• Serve as the connective tissue between IMF headquarters and member state capabilities

In Ernest’s words, RCDCs will become the “bridge between AI-enabled analysis at HQ and the capability development required in member states.”

A Call to Preparedness and Cooperation

The keynote closed with a reminder of the long-term vision at stake:

“We are not entering an age of faster automation. We are entering an age of rapidly re-scaled and re-distributed intelligence. AI and autonomy will determine not only competitiveness, but the capacity for sustainable development.”

This transition is global, rapid, and uneven. It demands institutional readiness, strategic foresight, and the collective stewardship of governments, development organizations, and industry leaders.

At Minerva, our mission is to support that transition by providing research, education, and strategic guidance for the secure and resilient integration of AI and autonomous systems into critical operations and national infrastructures.

We are grateful to IMF leadership for the opportunity to contribute to this important dialogue, and we look forward to continued collaboration with regional centers, development partners, and national authorities around the world.